Let’s Take a Look Back at the Luxury Market

By Tim Ford, Real Estate Broker

The million-dollar mark was once a milestone that was rarely crossed for residential real estate sales in and around Bozeman. Looking back at some of the previous peak years, in the entire year of 2007, only 24 homes sold for 7 figures or more. In all of 2008, that number was only 22 homes. Now, 14 years later, there have been more than 10 times that with 259 homes sold above the million-dollar mark during just the first 10 months of this year, and another 46 home sales currently pending. These numbers include sales both inside and outside of city limits, and all residential property types including condos, single family, and townhouses.

The median sold price for single family homes inside and out of Bozeman city limits is still climbing towards the $1 million dollar mark and is now up to around $890,850. Removing home sales outside of city limits, which often tend to be priced higher, and looking at just single-family homes inside city limits, the median sold price is still $800,000.

Comparing sales during the first 10 months of the year, January 1 through November 1; the higher end market was similar between 2018 and 2019. In 2018, 64 homes sold for more than $1 million, while 72 homes sold in that price range in 2019. The even higher mark of $2 million and above saw only 6 sales in 2018, and increased to 9 sales in the first 10 months of 2019.

As our area attracted even more out of state buyers in 2020, the higher end market took a big increase.  111 homes sold for more than $1 million between the first of the year and the first of November in 2020, a more than 50% increase in sales activity. Then, sales more than doubled from 2020 to last year, with 243 homes selling during the first 10 months of last year for more than $1 million. Even though overall sales numbers have slowed, home sales north of $1m have continued to climb, with 259 homes sold for more than $1m to date.

The market north of $2 million saw similar increases, rising from 9 sales during the first 10 months of 2019 to 26 sales in the first 10 months of 2020 and then nearly doubling again to 50 sales in 2021. This year has held steady with 49 sales closing north of $2m. Interestingly, or perhaps predictably, of those 49 sales, only 5 were homes inside city limits while the remaining 44 were outside city limits.  

The speed of the sales saw similar changes. Back in 2018, those 6 sales for more than $2 million sold at a median number of days on market of 214 days. By 2020, that number had almost been cut in half to 126 days on market. Last year, it dropped down to only 23 days on market. The median days on market for sales north of $2m was similar this year, falling just slightly to 21 days on market.   

An interesting note is the number of all cash purchases in this price range has remained relatively similar over the past 4 years. The highest percentage was actually in 2018 when 41 of the 64, or 64% of the sales were made in cash. 2019 saw almost half, or 33 of the 72 purchases made in all cash. In 2020, it was 53%. 2021 saw 48% and this year to date, 43% or 112 of the 259 sales north of $1 million were cash transactions.

Some interesting notes on high-end sales in Big Sky: Through all of last year, over 39 homes sold for more than $4 million, with the average price per square foot pushing well above $1000/SF. This year is holding steady with 31 homes sold north of the $4 million mark to date and another 76 similar sales pending. The average price per square foot for these high-end sales is now pushing $1500/sf.  These numbers do not include Yellowstone Club sales or custom residences built directly for buyers.  

As usual, I have included the latest Real Estate statistics. In addition to the 610 homes sold in the first 10 months of 2022, another 82 single family home sales are currently pending or under contract as of the date of writing. 

The included data reflects sales of homes in the greater Bozeman area, including Four Corners, Gallatin Gateway, Bridger Canyon, and Bozeman city limits. The data includes home sales reported through the local Big Sky Country MLS, and does not include private party sales, Condominiums, or Townhouses. 

2022 Real Estate Market Data

January 1^stthrough November 1^st, 2022

Single Family Homes

Total Sales – Bozeman

Single Family Homes

January 1^st through Nov 1^st